Kosovo’s post-independence trajectory shows important progress in the context of consolidating statehood and international integration, but it remains constrained because relations with Serbia have yet to be fully normalised. As a result, Kosovo’s integration in the international community is incomplete. Public threat perception, according to the traffic-light system, is ‘red’ for Serbia’s asymmetric actions and hybrid threats, ‘yellow’ for Russia’s hybrid influence and its strategic alignment with Belgrade and ‘green’ for internal political divisions and the stagnated process of normalising relations with Serbia, which the population views as a lower but persistent risk. NATO, through the Kosovo Force (KFOR) mission, is a major stabilising presence. Nonetheless, the Banjska attack in September 2023 showed how Serbia, which is politically supported by Russia, continues to pose asymmetric and hybrid threats. Addressing these vulnerabilities requires Kosovo to strengthen Euro-Atlantic integration, foster domestic consensus on the normalisation of relations with Serbia and implementation of the existing agreements and project credibility as a rational actor.

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Kosovo’s Security Challenges: Between Progress, Fragility and Uncertainty

  • Jeta Loshaj

摘要

Kosovo’s post-independence trajectory shows important progress in the context of consolidating statehood and international integration, but it remains constrained because relations with Serbia have yet to be fully normalised. As a result, Kosovo’s integration in the international community is incomplete. Public threat perception, according to the traffic-light system, is ‘red’ for Serbia’s asymmetric actions and hybrid threats, ‘yellow’ for Russia’s hybrid influence and its strategic alignment with Belgrade and ‘green’ for internal political divisions and the stagnated process of normalising relations with Serbia, which the population views as a lower but persistent risk. NATO, through the Kosovo Force (KFOR) mission, is a major stabilising presence. Nonetheless, the Banjska attack in September 2023 showed how Serbia, which is politically supported by Russia, continues to pose asymmetric and hybrid threats. Addressing these vulnerabilities requires Kosovo to strengthen Euro-Atlantic integration, foster domestic consensus on the normalisation of relations with Serbia and implementation of the existing agreements and project credibility as a rational actor.