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Our study proposes an extended SIR model that explicitly incorporates mosquito mobility between high-transmission (hot spot) and low-transmission areas to explain malaria persistence or resurgence. We establish a local threshold governed by the basic reproduction number: below this threshold, introductions die out; above it, an endemic equilibrium exists and is locally asymptotically stable. Vector mobility plays an ambivalent role: it reduces the residence of susceptible mosquitoes in the recipient area (a structural effect that lowers the threshold), but if a flux of infected mosquitoes from a hot spot persists, the same mobility acts as an external forcing capable of maintaining low-level endemicity, especially near the threshold. We derive closed-form expressions for the endemic equilibrium and prove its stability, then numerically confirm the expected regimes (extinction, endemicity, seasonal resurgence under importation). Operationally, our results argue for coupled strategies: lowering local transmission potential (reducing mosquito–human contact, shortening vector survival, rapid case management) and controlling “entomological frontiers” to limit inflows from hot spots, with seasonally tuned interventions and sensitive surveillance. This framework thus provides an analytical and practical basis for guiding control efforts in low-transmission settings.

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Modeling Malaria Transmission by the Movement of Mosquitoes from Hot Spot Area to Areas of Low Transmission

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Moussa Kane,
  • Karim Konate,
  • Ousmane Sy,
  • El Hadji Amadou Niang,
  • Cheikh Gaye,
  • Mamadou Saliou Diallo,
  • Ibrahima Ndiaye,
  • Yacine Aw,
  • Almamy Youssouf Ly,
  • Léontine Ndogou Bakhoum,
  • Khady Ndiaye,
  • Edouard Guédj Tine,
  • Moussa Diop,
  • Lucien Gning,
  • Mor Absa Loum,
  • Mamadou Bousso,
  • Lassana Konate,
  • Ousmane Faye,
  • Oumar Gaye,
  • Jean Louis Ndiaye

摘要

Our study proposes an extended SIR model that explicitly incorporates mosquito mobility between high-transmission (hot spot) and low-transmission areas to explain malaria persistence or resurgence. We establish a local threshold governed by the basic reproduction number: below this threshold, introductions die out; above it, an endemic equilibrium exists and is locally asymptotically stable. Vector mobility plays an ambivalent role: it reduces the residence of susceptible mosquitoes in the recipient area (a structural effect that lowers the threshold), but if a flux of infected mosquitoes from a hot spot persists, the same mobility acts as an external forcing capable of maintaining low-level endemicity, especially near the threshold. We derive closed-form expressions for the endemic equilibrium and prove its stability, then numerically confirm the expected regimes (extinction, endemicity, seasonal resurgence under importation). Operationally, our results argue for coupled strategies: lowering local transmission potential (reducing mosquito–human contact, shortening vector survival, rapid case management) and controlling “entomological frontiers” to limit inflows from hot spots, with seasonally tuned interventions and sensitive surveillance. This framework thus provides an analytical and practical basis for guiding control efforts in low-transmission settings.