Malaria remains a major public health concern in sub-Saharan Africa, even in areas progressing toward elimination. This study investigates malaria transmission dynamics in Keur Socé, a low-transmission setting in Senegal, using data collected between 2015 and 2021. Statistical analysis with centered moving averages (CMA) revealed a general downward trend in morbidity, while highlighting strong seasonality with recurrent peaks in the fourth quarter, coinciding with the post-rainy season. Entomological and molecular investigations showed a clear predominance of Anopheles arabiensis (>96%), and clustering analysis identified localized transmission hotspots, reflecting spatial heterogeneity of risk within the community. To interpret these patterns, a simplified SIRS–SI compartmental model was developed. Analysis of the control reproduction number ( \({R}_{c}\) ) demonstrated that elimination ( \({R}_{c}<1\) ) is attainable with modest reductions in transmission parameters ( \(\alpha,\beta\) ) or moderate increases in recovery ( \(\gamma\) ) and mosquito mortality ( \(\mu\) ), consistent with interventions such as insecticide-treated nets ITNs, indoor residual spraying IRS, seasonal malaria chemoprevention SMC, rapid diagnosis, and effective treatment with artemisinin-based combination therapies ACTs. Numerical simulations and phase-plane analyses further emphasized the influence of seasonality and the critical need for continuous surveillance to prevent resurgence. These findings illustrate that mathematical modeling, when combined with entomological and statistical approaches, offers a practical tool for guiding malaria control strategies in Keur Socé and other pre-elimination settings in sub-Saharan Africa.