Modeling Future Climate and World-System Interactions: Risk, Collapse, and Adaptation
摘要
Climate change represents one of the most significant stressors on the contemporary world system, interacting with economic, social, ecological, and political structures in ways that amplify systemic risks. Understanding climate change within the broader world system requires analytical tools capable of capturing multiscale dynamics, nonlinear feedbacks, and the cascading risks that emerge from the interactions among ecological, economic, social, and geopolitical systems. Models can demonstrate that climate change acts as a powerful risk multiplier, destabilizing global economic networks, intensifying food and water insecurity, accelerating ecological decline, and amplifying social and geopolitical tensions. Modeling also shows how these risks can interact, leading to cascading failures that may culminate in regional or systemic collapse. This chapter provides a critical synthesis of the major modeling approaches used to study climate–world-system interactions, including system dynamics models, agent-based models, integrated assessment models, network and cascade models, econometric frameworks, and emerging machine learning methods. Rather than endorsing a single dominant paradigm, the chapter demonstrates that each modeling tradition illuminates different components of climate risk—from planetary tipping points to supply-chain disruptions, migration flows, governance breakdown, and economic inequality. By comparing their strengths, limitations, and domains of applicability, the chapter highlights the need for model pluralism to understand systemic vulnerability and resilience. It argues that combining models—rather than relying on any one method—provides more robust insights into global instability, risk propagation, and the potential for collapse or adaptation. Ethical and political challenges, including equity and representation, remain critical to the design and application of models. The chapter concludes by outlining integrative modeling pathways that can better inform anticipatory governance, policy design, and multisectoral climate resilience. This chapter positions models not as predictive certainties but as powerful tools for diagnosing systemic risk, guiding strategic action, and supporting a just and sustainable global future. Advancing climate–world-system modeling requires moving beyond collapse prediction toward anticipatory governance, positioning models as essential tools for both early warning and guiding sustainable futures.