The COVID-19 pandemic is not unprecedented in its severity. The Spanish flu in 1918 and 1919 killed over 40 million people worldwide, compared with 7 million for COVID-19 according to WHO data as of February 25, 2024. What is striking is the disproportion between the cause, a health emergency, and the economic effects. As a result, during the COVID-19 pandemic, state dirigisme was reborn from its ashes with three full nationwide lockdowns, a first in the country’s history. This unprecedented restriction of liberties in peacetime led to a rise of almost 20 percentage points in the government debt-to-GDP ratio compared with 2019. State dirigisme is synonymous with inflation. It was when economic activity resumed after the lockdowns that inflation reared its head, driven by the huge injections of liquidity into the economy. In March 2020, the ECB announced the launch of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP), with an envelope of €750 billion, with purchases to be conducted until the end of 2020. In December 2020, the central bank announced that, given the resurgence of the pandemic and the economic fallout, the envelope would be increased further to €1850 billion, with net purchases under the PEPP until at least March 2022.

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COVID-19 Pandemic

  • Cristina Peicuti

摘要

The COVID-19 pandemic is not unprecedented in its severity. The Spanish flu in 1918 and 1919 killed over 40 million people worldwide, compared with 7 million for COVID-19 according to WHO data as of February 25, 2024. What is striking is the disproportion between the cause, a health emergency, and the economic effects. As a result, during the COVID-19 pandemic, state dirigisme was reborn from its ashes with three full nationwide lockdowns, a first in the country’s history. This unprecedented restriction of liberties in peacetime led to a rise of almost 20 percentage points in the government debt-to-GDP ratio compared with 2019. State dirigisme is synonymous with inflation. It was when economic activity resumed after the lockdowns that inflation reared its head, driven by the huge injections of liquidity into the economy. In March 2020, the ECB announced the launch of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP), with an envelope of €750 billion, with purchases to be conducted until the end of 2020. In December 2020, the central bank announced that, given the resurgence of the pandemic and the economic fallout, the envelope would be increased further to €1850 billion, with net purchases under the PEPP until at least March 2022.