Predicting Ecosystem Responses to Climate Change: Integrative Modeling and Empirical Evidence
摘要
Predicting ecosystem responses to climate change is essential for understanding marine ecosystem resilience and informed adaptive management strategies. This chapter, Predicting Ecosystem Responses to Climate Change: Integrative Modeling and Empirical Evidence, discusses advances in predictive modeling, integrating frameworks with empirical data. It explores climate change as a driver of marine ecosystem shifts, highlighting stressors such as warming, acidification, and deoxygenation. Key modeling approaches, including Earth system models, species distribution models, and coupled biogeochemical models, are reviewed alongside advances in data assimilation and real-time adaptive frameworks. Empirical validation is emphasized through long-term monitoring, experimental studies, and case studies of coral reefs and polar regions. Practical applications include fisheries management, designing resilient marine protected areas, and developing early warning systems. The chapter concludes by addressing challenges in data gaps, computational demands, and interdisciplinary collaboration while charting future directions in AI-driven forecasting, resilience modeling, and stakeholder engagement for climate adaptation.