The dynamic and unpredictable nature of the Indian stock market presents significant challenges in forecasting return behavior and managing financial risk. This study explores market turbulence through a comparative analysis of three distinct modeling approaches: the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, Random Forest, and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. By analyzing historical return data from Indian Nifty indices, the research captures both linear dependencies and complex nonlinear patterns associated with market volatility. The results highlight the GARCH model’s strength in modeling conditional volatility, while the machine learning and deep learning techniques—Random Forest and LSTM—exhibit enhanced predictive power in capturing intricate fluctuations in stock returns. The findings suggest that integrating traditional econometric methods with data-driven approaches offers a more comprehensive and accurate understanding of market dynamics. This multi-model framework is valuable for investors, financial analysts, and policymakers aiming to anticipate and navigate periods of heightened market uncertainty.

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Forecasting Market Turbulence: A Multi-model Study Using GARCH, Random Forest, and LSTM in the Indian Stock Market

  • J. Shashidhar Yadav,
  • Shrinivas Kulkarni,
  • B. S. Rajath,
  • S. V. Pradeep Kumar,
  • N. Priyadarshini,
  • H. M. Devananda

摘要

The dynamic and unpredictable nature of the Indian stock market presents significant challenges in forecasting return behavior and managing financial risk. This study explores market turbulence through a comparative analysis of three distinct modeling approaches: the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, Random Forest, and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. By analyzing historical return data from Indian Nifty indices, the research captures both linear dependencies and complex nonlinear patterns associated with market volatility. The results highlight the GARCH model’s strength in modeling conditional volatility, while the machine learning and deep learning techniques—Random Forest and LSTM—exhibit enhanced predictive power in capturing intricate fluctuations in stock returns. The findings suggest that integrating traditional econometric methods with data-driven approaches offers a more comprehensive and accurate understanding of market dynamics. This multi-model framework is valuable for investors, financial analysts, and policymakers aiming to anticipate and navigate periods of heightened market uncertainty.