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This study aims to understand the impact of volatility in oil prices and uncertainty in the global world on global energy prices. In order to achieve this aim, we will focus on the changes taking place in the oil market. Oil, which has taken an important place in global production and consumption for many years, still preserves its importance in different sectors of the world. This effect has serious consequences all over the world in economic, social, political, etc. areas. In this study, two different methods will be used jointly. The first method is “case study analysis”, which involves the analysis of different events in different periods, while the second method is time-based “time series analysis”, which highlights the changes over time. The results of the study show that the behavior of oil prices cannot be clarified only by the logic of supply and demand balance, which is put forward in the classical sense. The study indicated that political crises and global oil supply and demand insufficiency have longer-term effects on oil prices. It has been witnessed that these situations have significantly increased both the oil price and the volatility in the oil price. As a result of the analysis, three conclusions were reached. First, the volatility of oil markets varies depending on the source of the risk. Secondly, when evaluated in terms of oil prices, global health crises can have more devastating effects than even geopolitical conflicts. Thirdly, uncertainty is a crucial variable in analyses of oil prices. Considering the persistence of uncertainty and its impact on energy security together is of critical importance in analyzing oil prices and oil markets. Studies that do not take these issues into account have the potential to produce seriously deceptive results in terms of both accuracy and validity. As a result, future policies will need to take into account systemic risks, diversify supply channels, and be prepared for crises not only arising from political developments but also from global health shocks and financial shocks.

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Volatility and Geopolitical Uncertainty in Oil Pricing: Empirical Insights from Major Global Shocks

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • İbrahim Gündüz

摘要

This study aims to understand the impact of volatility in oil prices and uncertainty in the global world on global energy prices. In order to achieve this aim, we will focus on the changes taking place in the oil market. Oil, which has taken an important place in global production and consumption for many years, still preserves its importance in different sectors of the world. This effect has serious consequences all over the world in economic, social, political, etc. areas. In this study, two different methods will be used jointly. The first method is “case study analysis”, which involves the analysis of different events in different periods, while the second method is time-based “time series analysis”, which highlights the changes over time. The results of the study show that the behavior of oil prices cannot be clarified only by the logic of supply and demand balance, which is put forward in the classical sense. The study indicated that political crises and global oil supply and demand insufficiency have longer-term effects on oil prices. It has been witnessed that these situations have significantly increased both the oil price and the volatility in the oil price. As a result of the analysis, three conclusions were reached. First, the volatility of oil markets varies depending on the source of the risk. Secondly, when evaluated in terms of oil prices, global health crises can have more devastating effects than even geopolitical conflicts. Thirdly, uncertainty is a crucial variable in analyses of oil prices. Considering the persistence of uncertainty and its impact on energy security together is of critical importance in analyzing oil prices and oil markets. Studies that do not take these issues into account have the potential to produce seriously deceptive results in terms of both accuracy and validity. As a result, future policies will need to take into account systemic risks, diversify supply channels, and be prepared for crises not only arising from political developments but also from global health shocks and financial shocks.