Energy Trade and Security: Network Structure and Scenario Simulation of LNG Trade
摘要
Energy security plays a pivotal role in sustaining the economic growth and geopolitical stability of nations. This research examines the disruption of energy security supply chains and how mapping network structure may contribute to predicting network changes when supply chains are disrupted. The analysis is completed in two steps. First, observed LNG trade networks are mapped out for 2019, 2021, and 2023. This establishes a base year and shows disrupted networks after the COVID-19 pandemic and the invasion of Ukraine. Post-disruption, the networks have become more skewed and potentially less resilient. Second, a novel approach using social network analysis (SNA) is developed to simulate disruption of global energy commodity trade flows and compared with that of observed disruptions. The analysis shows that network structure impacts how networks shift from disruptions, but the simulation method is too conservative when compared against observed networks post-disruption.