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Against the backdrop of profound restructuring within global industrial chains, the United States’ pursuit of “Friend-Shoring” strategies aims to reshape the global supply chain landscape and reduce reliance on China's industrial ecosystem. This strategic reorientation potentially triggers risks of industrial relocation away from China, posing particular challenges for factor- intensive industries and consequently impacting China's strategic position within Global Value Chains (GVCs). Utilizing intermediate goods trade data from a Multi-Regional Input-Output (MRIO) database, this paper constructs a global production network model. By comparing the real network (null model) with a counterfactual network model and employing a three-dimensional indicator system—Degree Centrality, Betweenness Centrality, and Closeness Centrality—this study systematically assesses the impact of US trade policies on China's factor-intensive industries. Empirical findings indicate that the Friend-Shoring strategy significantly accelerates the relocation of China's resource-intensive industries (e.g., agriculture, forestry, fishing, mining), while technology-intensive industries (e.g., electrical equipment) and some labor- intensive industries (e.g., textiles) demonstrate stronger resilience. Within the context of the US “De-Risking” policy, this paper proposes a systematic policy framework to enhance the resilience and security of China's industrial and supply chains, offering crucial decision-making references for navigating global supply chain restructuring.

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Risk Measurement and Analysis of China's Factor-Intensive Industries Under the U.S. “De-Risking” Strategy

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Lizhuo Cui,
  • Jiarui Feng,
  • Zhifei Li,
  • Feiyu Hao,
  • Anzhe Shao,
  • Lizhi Xing

摘要

Against the backdrop of profound restructuring within global industrial chains, the United States’ pursuit of “Friend-Shoring” strategies aims to reshape the global supply chain landscape and reduce reliance on China's industrial ecosystem. This strategic reorientation potentially triggers risks of industrial relocation away from China, posing particular challenges for factor- intensive industries and consequently impacting China's strategic position within Global Value Chains (GVCs). Utilizing intermediate goods trade data from a Multi-Regional Input-Output (MRIO) database, this paper constructs a global production network model. By comparing the real network (null model) with a counterfactual network model and employing a three-dimensional indicator system—Degree Centrality, Betweenness Centrality, and Closeness Centrality—this study systematically assesses the impact of US trade policies on China's factor-intensive industries. Empirical findings indicate that the Friend-Shoring strategy significantly accelerates the relocation of China's resource-intensive industries (e.g., agriculture, forestry, fishing, mining), while technology-intensive industries (e.g., electrical equipment) and some labor- intensive industries (e.g., textiles) demonstrate stronger resilience. Within the context of the US “De-Risking” policy, this paper proposes a systematic policy framework to enhance the resilience and security of China's industrial and supply chains, offering crucial decision-making references for navigating global supply chain restructuring.