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Amid accelerating global supply chain restructuring and the U.S. “friend-shoring” strategy, China production network faces substantial static and dynamic risks. Using the ADB-MRIO, we build a Global Industrial Value Chain Network (GIVCN) and its backbone (GIVCBN) to quantify friend-shoring's effects on China's relocation risks via topological connectivity and evolutionary cohesion. Static analysis shows pronounced decoupling and disruptions in resource- and labor-intensive sectors— agriculture, forestry, fisheries, wood processing, and real estate—with more disrupted links under friend-shoring than near-shoring. Dynamic simulations indicate friend-shoring suppresses the natural evolution of China production network and weakens supply chain cohesion, while sectors like coking and refined petroleum, transport equipment, and inland transportation remain relatively resilient within domestic circulation. Policy recommendations: (i) strengthen regional coordination and adopt “re-routing export” strategies to buffer shocks; (ii) promote industrial upgrading toward high-end, intelligent manufacturing; (iii) improve institutional and social security to enhance supply chain resilience.

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Static and Dynamic Risk Exposure Analysis of China Production Network Under US Friend- Shoring and Near-Shoring Strategies

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Zhifei Li,
  • Lizhuo Cui,
  • Jairui Feng,
  • Feiyu Hao,
  • Anzhe Shao,
  • Lizhi Xing

摘要

Amid accelerating global supply chain restructuring and the U.S. “friend-shoring” strategy, China production network faces substantial static and dynamic risks. Using the ADB-MRIO, we build a Global Industrial Value Chain Network (GIVCN) and its backbone (GIVCBN) to quantify friend-shoring's effects on China's relocation risks via topological connectivity and evolutionary cohesion. Static analysis shows pronounced decoupling and disruptions in resource- and labor-intensive sectors— agriculture, forestry, fisheries, wood processing, and real estate—with more disrupted links under friend-shoring than near-shoring. Dynamic simulations indicate friend-shoring suppresses the natural evolution of China production network and weakens supply chain cohesion, while sectors like coking and refined petroleum, transport equipment, and inland transportation remain relatively resilient within domestic circulation. Policy recommendations: (i) strengthen regional coordination and adopt “re-routing export” strategies to buffer shocks; (ii) promote industrial upgrading toward high-end, intelligent manufacturing; (iii) improve institutional and social security to enhance supply chain resilience.