Companies should identify in advance determinants that impact their financial situation, to promote financial sustainability, and avoid situations of bankruptcy. The literature has shown that the probability of default is conditioned by several factors that go beyond companies’ specific characteristics. This work aims to understand whether the region where the company is located and its economic development influence its probability of default. An unbalanced panel data of 1,205 hotels located in Portugal, over the period 2012–2022 is analyzed, using the Logit model. Results show that companies’ location influences their financial constraints. Moreover, regional economic development, more precisely the regional gross domestic product growth, and the regional unemployment rate impact companies’ default probability. Additionally, companies’ liquidity, leverage, size, age, and asset structure are also determinants to explain the probability of default. These findings help to explain regional disparities and the concentration of some industries in a specific region.

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Does Regional Heterogeneity Impact Default Probability? the Case of Portuguese Hotels

  • Inês Lisboa,
  • Magali Costa

摘要

Companies should identify in advance determinants that impact their financial situation, to promote financial sustainability, and avoid situations of bankruptcy. The literature has shown that the probability of default is conditioned by several factors that go beyond companies’ specific characteristics. This work aims to understand whether the region where the company is located and its economic development influence its probability of default. An unbalanced panel data of 1,205 hotels located in Portugal, over the period 2012–2022 is analyzed, using the Logit model. Results show that companies’ location influences their financial constraints. Moreover, regional economic development, more precisely the regional gross domestic product growth, and the regional unemployment rate impact companies’ default probability. Additionally, companies’ liquidity, leverage, size, age, and asset structure are also determinants to explain the probability of default. These findings help to explain regional disparities and the concentration of some industries in a specific region.