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The Bozköy Geothermal Field (BGF) was first explored in 2016 with a 3,850 m well recording a bottom-hole temperature of 295 ℃. It was followed by a second well in 2021 reaching 341 ℃ at 3,957 m. Despite these high temperatures, production tests revealed uneconomic flow rates, indicating that BGF is more suitable as a candidate for enhanced geothermal system (EGS) development. However, the project’s potential and associated risks have not yet been systematically evaluated, largely due to limited available data. This study assesses the geothermal potential of a 50 km2 license area for 2–5 km depth range using the Modified USGS Heat-in-Place Method in combination with Monte Carlo simulations. Rock samples collected from the field were analyzed for density and specific heat capacity. A Python-based code was developed and validated against a commercial software. Reservoir and power plant parameters for a single-flash design were then incorporated into the model. Results show that the available work (WA) values ranging from ~0.4 × 1014 to 5 × 1014 kJ, with the most likely outcome near 2.1 × 1014 kJ. The estimated power production potential (PW) corresponds to P10, P50, and P90 values of 387 MWe, 254 MWe, and 139 MWe, respectively. The study provides the first probabilistic assessment of EGS potential for BGF.

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Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) Potential Estimation Using Monte Carlo Method: Bozköy Geothermal Field, Aksaray, Central Türkiye

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Aydın Çiçek,
  • Ebru Bayar,
  • Ali Cemal Benim,
  • Norbert Klitzsch,
  • Alper Baba

摘要

The Bozköy Geothermal Field (BGF) was first explored in 2016 with a 3,850 m well recording a bottom-hole temperature of 295 ℃. It was followed by a second well in 2021 reaching 341 ℃ at 3,957 m. Despite these high temperatures, production tests revealed uneconomic flow rates, indicating that BGF is more suitable as a candidate for enhanced geothermal system (EGS) development. However, the project’s potential and associated risks have not yet been systematically evaluated, largely due to limited available data. This study assesses the geothermal potential of a 50 km2 license area for 2–5 km depth range using the Modified USGS Heat-in-Place Method in combination with Monte Carlo simulations. Rock samples collected from the field were analyzed for density and specific heat capacity. A Python-based code was developed and validated against a commercial software. Reservoir and power plant parameters for a single-flash design were then incorporated into the model. Results show that the available work (WA) values ranging from ~0.4 × 1014 to 5 × 1014 kJ, with the most likely outcome near 2.1 × 1014 kJ. The estimated power production potential (PW) corresponds to P10, P50, and P90 values of 387 MWe, 254 MWe, and 139 MWe, respectively. The study provides the first probabilistic assessment of EGS potential for BGF.