This paper investigates the safe haven properties of selected global commodities—namely gold, silver, platinum, cocoa, and crude oil—for major U.S. sector indices during periods of heightened economic uncertainty. Utilizing daily data from January 2019 to December 2024, the study applies the Dynamic Conditional Correlation-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (DCC-GARCH) model to assess time-varying correlations and employs the regression framework developed by (Baur and McDermott in J Bank Finance 34:1886–1898, 2010) to identify safe haven characteristics during crisis periods. Specifically, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine conflict are examined as major global crises that disrupted economic activity and labor markets, directly challenging progress toward Sustainable Development Goal 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth). The results reveal that commodity–equity correlations are generally weak and time-varying, with notable divergence during crisis periods. Cocoa, silver, and crude oil emerge as the most protective assets, each displaying sector- and crisis-specific safe haven behavior. Gold and platinum, by contrast, offer only sporadic and limited protection. Sector-specific variation is pronounced, with Financials, Materials, and Real Estate benefiting more consistently from commodity-based hedging, while Utilities and Consumer Staples show minimal reliance on such strategies. These findings underscore the importance of dynamic, sector-aware hedging strategies and challenge the notion of universal safe haven assets. The study offers important implications for investors, portfolio managers, and policymakers seeking resilience in the face of global shocks.

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U.S. Sector Equity and Safe Haven Commodities: Assessing Risk Mitigation in Times of Global Turmoil

  • Sayed Hadi Mahfoodh,
  • Hanan Naser

摘要

This paper investigates the safe haven properties of selected global commodities—namely gold, silver, platinum, cocoa, and crude oil—for major U.S. sector indices during periods of heightened economic uncertainty. Utilizing daily data from January 2019 to December 2024, the study applies the Dynamic Conditional Correlation-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (DCC-GARCH) model to assess time-varying correlations and employs the regression framework developed by (Baur and McDermott in J Bank Finance 34:1886–1898, 2010) to identify safe haven characteristics during crisis periods. Specifically, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine conflict are examined as major global crises that disrupted economic activity and labor markets, directly challenging progress toward Sustainable Development Goal 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth). The results reveal that commodity–equity correlations are generally weak and time-varying, with notable divergence during crisis periods. Cocoa, silver, and crude oil emerge as the most protective assets, each displaying sector- and crisis-specific safe haven behavior. Gold and platinum, by contrast, offer only sporadic and limited protection. Sector-specific variation is pronounced, with Financials, Materials, and Real Estate benefiting more consistently from commodity-based hedging, while Utilities and Consumer Staples show minimal reliance on such strategies. These findings underscore the importance of dynamic, sector-aware hedging strategies and challenge the notion of universal safe haven assets. The study offers important implications for investors, portfolio managers, and policymakers seeking resilience in the face of global shocks.