This paper investigates the time-varying spillover dynamics of quanto-CDS premiums among G7 and AAA-rated Eurozone countries over the period 2015–2025. By utilizing CDS contracts under diverse default clauses and referring to the Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR) frequency connectedness framework, we uncover significant temporal and cross-country variations in sovereign credit default swap market interconnectedness. In addition, the spillovers are notably amplified during periods of financial and geopolitical stress, while remaining moderate in more stable conditions. The analysis highlights the crucial role of redenomination clauses, particularly under the CR14 framework, in shaping transmission patterns, especially for Italy. Frequency decomposition confirms that connectedness is largely driven by short-term dynamics. Moreover, Italy and France consistently emerge as net transmitters of shocks, whereas Germany and the Netherlands act as net recipients. Despite episodic surges, the average contribution of redenomination-related spillovers to the overall network remains modest, indicating that redenomination risk is largely country-specific outside of crisis episodes. These findings offer important insights into the structure and resilience of Eurozone sovereign risk interconnectedness.

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Quanto-CDS Premiums in the Eurozone: Uncovering Redenomination and Default Risk Through CR and CR14 Contracts

  • Tarek Chebbi

摘要

This paper investigates the time-varying spillover dynamics of quanto-CDS premiums among G7 and AAA-rated Eurozone countries over the period 2015–2025. By utilizing CDS contracts under diverse default clauses and referring to the Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR) frequency connectedness framework, we uncover significant temporal and cross-country variations in sovereign credit default swap market interconnectedness. In addition, the spillovers are notably amplified during periods of financial and geopolitical stress, while remaining moderate in more stable conditions. The analysis highlights the crucial role of redenomination clauses, particularly under the CR14 framework, in shaping transmission patterns, especially for Italy. Frequency decomposition confirms that connectedness is largely driven by short-term dynamics. Moreover, Italy and France consistently emerge as net transmitters of shocks, whereas Germany and the Netherlands act as net recipients. Despite episodic surges, the average contribution of redenomination-related spillovers to the overall network remains modest, indicating that redenomination risk is largely country-specific outside of crisis episodes. These findings offer important insights into the structure and resilience of Eurozone sovereign risk interconnectedness.