Nonlinear Input-Output Analysis of International Trade Disruption Impacts on Capacity-Constrained Economies
摘要
The mathematical framework for models of nonlinear intersectoral balance is presented, incorporating the substitution of production factors and constraints on the production capacities of economic sectors. The computation of economic equilibrium in the model, based on solving dual Young convex optimization problems, enables the calculation of equilibrium intersectoral flows, sectoral demand for primary resources, and demand and supply prices on products in the equilibrium state under scenario-specified conditions on the model’s input parameters. The model is applied to a qualitative analysis of the economic effects of a unilateral external trade shock in a system of two aggregated production clusters interconnected by mutual goods supplies and a common final consumers behavior on the product markets of clusters.