To solve the variety of approaches to understanding operational codes, the research quest shifts to the fact that foreign policy decision-makers evaluate alternative policies in terms of four major goals—military power, economic prosperity, achieving prestige for the country, and ensuring that the option chosen is feasible. Accordingly, the operational code of a leader consists of the relative weights placed on the four criteria and subcriteria, which in turn are based on the major paradigms of international relations theory. Leaders evaluate policy options in terms of how well each alternative achieves the criteria. When they estimate weights for each policy option, a computer program exists that can rank all options, thereby professionalizing how decisions are made. As an illustration, the operational code of former president Barack Obama is revealed in regard to his decision to cut off negotiations with North Korea, which for at least two decades had demonstrated sincere efforts to denuclearize and become normalized as a member of the international system. The effect of the blunder was to allow a new nuclear power to emerge on the world stage.

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A Decision-Making Code: Foreign Policy Options Analysis

  • Michael Haas

摘要

To solve the variety of approaches to understanding operational codes, the research quest shifts to the fact that foreign policy decision-makers evaluate alternative policies in terms of four major goals—military power, economic prosperity, achieving prestige for the country, and ensuring that the option chosen is feasible. Accordingly, the operational code of a leader consists of the relative weights placed on the four criteria and subcriteria, which in turn are based on the major paradigms of international relations theory. Leaders evaluate policy options in terms of how well each alternative achieves the criteria. When they estimate weights for each policy option, a computer program exists that can rank all options, thereby professionalizing how decisions are made. As an illustration, the operational code of former president Barack Obama is revealed in regard to his decision to cut off negotiations with North Korea, which for at least two decades had demonstrated sincere efforts to denuclearize and become normalized as a member of the international system. The effect of the blunder was to allow a new nuclear power to emerge on the world stage.