Probabilistic shoreline change modeling can provide estimations of risks and uncertainties of erosion for risk-based coastal protection practice. This paper presents a probabilistic shoreline evolution model by using the conditions of waves and mean sea levels generated by a stochastic wave climate emulator (SWCE). Including large-scale climate processes, this wave climate model uses pressure and temperatures on sea surface that reflect inter-annual oceanic variability and outgoing long wave radiation that reflects intra-seasonal variability to modulate the probability of weather occurring at a range of climate timescales. This probabilistic shoreline model of Monte-Carlo simulations is validated by simulating multiple-years shoreline changes in Duck coast, NC. The stochastic characteristics of wave samples generated by the SWCE model are compared to hindcasting results of wave gage data. Sensitivity of sea level rise to mean shoreline changes is analyzed based on probabilistic results.