This chapter analyzes the intersection of tax policy, socio-political risk, and climate change vulnerability in Africa, contributing to the thin but growing literature on fiscal capacity and climate resilience. Using a 24-country African panel dataset covering the period 2010–2022, the study employs a dynamic panel model to examine the extent to which socio-political risk explains the effect of tax variables on climate exposure. The results show that while tax policy and tax structure have strong associations with increased vulnerability, resource rents are inversely related, suggesting a potential insurance fiscal role when managed appropriately. Interaction effects are notably found to indicate that socio-political risk has a significant moderating impact in these relationships. Specifically, the connection between tax policy and socio-political risk yields a negative and statistically significant coefficient, such that the effectiveness of tax policy in reducing climate vulnerability rises in politically stable conditions. In contrast, the relationship between tax structure and socio-political risk yields a positive and significant impact on climate vulnerability, such that poor socio-political conditions can intensify the negative effects of regressive tax structures. These findings underscore the centrality of institutional quality in mobilizing tax policy to climate adaptation.

错误:搜索内容不能为空,请输入英文关键词
错误:关键词超出字数限制,请精简
高级检索

Assessing Socio-Political Risk on Climate Change-Induced Vulnerability in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does Tax Policy Matter?

  • Godfred Amewu,
  • Sandra Twumaa Larbi,
  • Teddy Ossei Kwakye

摘要

This chapter analyzes the intersection of tax policy, socio-political risk, and climate change vulnerability in Africa, contributing to the thin but growing literature on fiscal capacity and climate resilience. Using a 24-country African panel dataset covering the period 2010–2022, the study employs a dynamic panel model to examine the extent to which socio-political risk explains the effect of tax variables on climate exposure. The results show that while tax policy and tax structure have strong associations with increased vulnerability, resource rents are inversely related, suggesting a potential insurance fiscal role when managed appropriately. Interaction effects are notably found to indicate that socio-political risk has a significant moderating impact in these relationships. Specifically, the connection between tax policy and socio-political risk yields a negative and statistically significant coefficient, such that the effectiveness of tax policy in reducing climate vulnerability rises in politically stable conditions. In contrast, the relationship between tax structure and socio-political risk yields a positive and significant impact on climate vulnerability, such that poor socio-political conditions can intensify the negative effects of regressive tax structures. These findings underscore the centrality of institutional quality in mobilizing tax policy to climate adaptation.