Extreme waveSurface wind heightsTyphoon model caused by tropical cyclonesTropical cyclone (TCs) and extratropical cyclones must be predicted in the design of offshoreOffshore wind turbinesWind turbine based on at least 30 years of hindcasting. However, mesoscale modelsMesoscale model underestimate sea level pressure depth and wind speed near the TC centre, while typhoon modelsTyphoon model underestimate wind speed far from the TC centre. In this study, the accuracy of the mesoscale modelMesoscale model in predicting sea level pressure during TCs is firstly analysed. Sea level pressures predicted by the mesoscale modelMesoscale model show good agreement with observations beyond 125 km from the TC centre, but the depths are underestimated near the TC centre. A novel method is proposed to identify the TC parameters used in the Holland model. The identified pressure distribution of TCs is in good agreement with observations. A new combined wind field model is also proposed to account for the differences between the pressure fields predicted by the mesoscale and typhoon modelsTyphoon model. The predicted sea level pressure and wind speed by the proposed model are validated using observations from 51 TC events observed over the past 30 years.

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Prediction of the Sea Level Pressure and Ocean Surface Wind Speed Using Mesoscale and Typhoon Models

  • M. Fukushima,
  • T. Ishihara

摘要

Extreme waveSurface wind heightsTyphoon model caused by tropical cyclonesTropical cyclone (TCs) and extratropical cyclones must be predicted in the design of offshoreOffshore wind turbinesWind turbine based on at least 30 years of hindcasting. However, mesoscale modelsMesoscale model underestimate sea level pressure depth and wind speed near the TC centre, while typhoon modelsTyphoon model underestimate wind speed far from the TC centre. In this study, the accuracy of the mesoscale modelMesoscale model in predicting sea level pressure during TCs is firstly analysed. Sea level pressures predicted by the mesoscale modelMesoscale model show good agreement with observations beyond 125 km from the TC centre, but the depths are underestimated near the TC centre. A novel method is proposed to identify the TC parameters used in the Holland model. The identified pressure distribution of TCs is in good agreement with observations. A new combined wind field model is also proposed to account for the differences between the pressure fields predicted by the mesoscale and typhoon modelsTyphoon model. The predicted sea level pressure and wind speed by the proposed model are validated using observations from 51 TC events observed over the past 30 years.