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Ex-tropicalEx-tropical cyclones cyclonesTropical cyclone are a serious threat to New Zealand, but most of the analysis has been done using low-resolution numerical weather prediction models (NWPs)Numerical Weather Prediction Models (NWPs). This study couples the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research’s (NIWA) NWPNumerical Weather Prediction Models (NWPs) model with a high-resolution CFDComputational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model to predict the impacts of ex-tropicalEx-tropical cyclones cycloneTropical cyclone cook on the Auckland central business district (CBD). The coupled model was first tested and used in an empty domain to generate a horizontally homogeneous atmospheric boundary layer (HHABL). Three turbulenceTurbulence models were tested: standard k − ε, k − ω, and SST. The standard k − ε and SST performed the best, showing less than 5% deviation in flow variables downstream of the inlet. The SST turbulenceTurbulence model outperformed the standard k − ε model in estimating CP when compared with wind tunnel measurementsWind tunnel measurements. The SST model varied by around 10% from the wind tunnel measurementsWind tunnel measurements. Subsequently, a model of Auckland CBD was investigated for two wind directions, 30° (North-East) and 240° (South-West), using SST. CFDComputational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations indicated that ex-tropicalEx-tropical cyclones cycloneTropical cyclone cook approaching from the North-East direction would result in greater impact on buildings due to the extended upstream sea fetch, which provides minimal natural wind attenuation. The pressures (CP) on the target building were larger for this wind direction, and the wind speed-up ratio also exceeded 1.0, indicating intensification of wind speeds within the urban canopyCanopy.

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Wind Predictions of Ex-tropical Cyclone Cook Making a Direct Hit on Auckland City

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Muizz Shah,
  • Richard Turner,
  • Richard G. J. Flay,
  • Stuart E. Norris

摘要

Ex-tropicalEx-tropical cyclones cyclonesTropical cyclone are a serious threat to New Zealand, but most of the analysis has been done using low-resolution numerical weather prediction models (NWPs)Numerical Weather Prediction Models (NWPs). This study couples the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research’s (NIWA) NWPNumerical Weather Prediction Models (NWPs) model with a high-resolution CFDComputational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model to predict the impacts of ex-tropicalEx-tropical cyclones cycloneTropical cyclone cook on the Auckland central business district (CBD). The coupled model was first tested and used in an empty domain to generate a horizontally homogeneous atmospheric boundary layer (HHABL). Three turbulenceTurbulence models were tested: standard k − ε, k − ω, and SST. The standard k − ε and SST performed the best, showing less than 5% deviation in flow variables downstream of the inlet. The SST turbulenceTurbulence model outperformed the standard k − ε model in estimating CP when compared with wind tunnel measurementsWind tunnel measurements. The SST model varied by around 10% from the wind tunnel measurementsWind tunnel measurements. Subsequently, a model of Auckland CBD was investigated for two wind directions, 30° (North-East) and 240° (South-West), using SST. CFDComputational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations indicated that ex-tropicalEx-tropical cyclones cycloneTropical cyclone cook approaching from the North-East direction would result in greater impact on buildings due to the extended upstream sea fetch, which provides minimal natural wind attenuation. The pressures (CP) on the target building were larger for this wind direction, and the wind speed-up ratio also exceeded 1.0, indicating intensification of wind speeds within the urban canopyCanopy.