The article presents a new approach to predicting the reliability of plain bearings of a passenger car turbocharger based on adaptive planning of resource tests. The developed technique allows to determine the patterns of change in the radial clearance, a key wear parameter, with high accuracy and minimal costs. The main attention is paid to the application of the exponential degradation model and algorithms for adaptive control of the duration of test cycles and the number of measurements. Mathematical dependencies, automated measurement methods and criteria for the statistical significance of changes are presented. The wear processes are simulated, the choice of parameters is substantiated and the influence of measurement accuracy on the information content of tests is demonstrated. The obtained results are confirmed by numerical analysis and graphically interpreted. The proposed technique has proven its efficiency in modeling conditions, helps to reduce operating costs and can be used in the design of diagnostic systems and forecasting the remaining life of bearings. The limitations of the study are associated with the assumption of a constant wear rate; in the future, it is planned to expand the model taking into account operational factors and conduct experimental verification.