Groundwater is crucial for sustaining ecosystems and meeting the demands of agriculture, industry, and domestic use. In the Jajpur region of Odisha, the increasing abstraction of groundwater—primarily for irrigation, industrial operations, and domestic use—has raised serious concerns regarding environmental sustainability and long-term resource availability. This study employs groundwater flow modelling to assess the impacts of abstraction on a watershed scale from 2014 to 2031. The analysis focuses on variations in hydraulic head to understand spatial and temporal patterns of groundwater depletion. Modelling results reveal a consistent regional groundwater flow direction throughout the study period, despite the emergence of localized zones experiencing significant drawdown. By 2031, certain areas are projected to undergo a maximum drawdown of up to 5 m, highlighting the pronounced influence of anthropogenic activities on subsurface water dynamics. Groundwater draft data show increasing seasonal variation, with abstraction levels ranging from 251,249 m3/day (non-monsoon) and 103,492 m3/day (monsoon) during 2014–2019, rising to 275,219 m3/day and 117,147 m3/day, respectively, during 2020–2031—indicative of escalating demand pressures. Additionally, hydraulic head levels ranged from 2.49 to 89.1 m above mean sea level in December 2014 and slightly shifted to 2.47–89.7 m by 2031. A localized maximum drawdown of approximately 4 m near the watershed divide further underscores spatial heterogeneity in aquifer response. These findings offer critical insights into the evolving groundwater regime and serve as a scientific foundation for formulating sustainable groundwater management and policy interventions.