Risk Assessment and Management in Renewable Energy
摘要
Every project comes with a set of risks. In renewable energy projects, the focus is not only on the construction but on any risk that could affect the future revenue stream. The method of managing these risks is the same in every sector. What matters is comprehensively identifying way the risks and uncertainties to which the project or asset is exposed. These uncertainties are different depending on the stage of development of the project. During the development phase, for instance, the main uncertainty could be whether the promoter succeeds or fails in obtaining the requested permit, the value at risk would be therefore the investment costs necessary for the development. During the construction, the risk of cost overrun is high, but the impact might be lower than the risk of having a lower energy generation than forecasted, because during the operation phase, generating less than expected is a major issue. The main risks associated with renewable energy projects can be classified into three categories: commercial risk, macroeconomic risk, and political risk, for which mitigation tools exist such as probabilistic approaches for the calculation of the forecasted energy production, derivatives for currency exchange risk, interest rate risk or inflation, environmental and social integration methods, and political risk insurance for political instability. Having a complete view of the risk spectrum is highly relevant for the successful implementation of renewable energy projects, because it allows the design of an appropriate risk-mitigation and allocation strategy.