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The increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves driven by climate change necessitate advanced strategies to enhance thermal resilience in residential buildings. Long-term monitoring and calibrated dynamic simulations provide critical insights into building performance and adaptation opportunities, yet limited data from occupied buildings complicates model calibration. This research addresses these challenges by integrating on-site measurements with dynamic simulations to assess current overheating risks and future climate scenarios, and evaluate passive adaptation measures. A detailed geometric model of a prefabricated concrete panel building in Budapest was developed in DesignBuilder, comprising 262 zones. Model calibration was conducted over one month by adjusting ventilation rates and internal gains, incorporating actual window-opening schedules from monitoring data. Model accuracy was validated using statistical indicators, including NMBE and CVRMSE. Simulations considered IPCC climate pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) for 2030 and 2050, evaluating overheating using the ODH26 indicator. Results indicated a significant rise in overheating risks, doubling by 2030 (RCP 2.6), tripling by 2050 (RCP 8.5). Analyzed adaptation strategies included advanced ventilation, shading, upgraded glazing, and thermal insulation. Advanced ventilation initially reduced overheating by up to 43%, but its effectiveness diminished under future scenarios (21–26%). Combining ventilation with shading or improved glazing enhanced performance, reducing overheating by up to 59%. Insulation showed a dual impact, beneficial as mitigation but potentially exacerbating overheating without proper shading or ventilation. The findings highlight the necessity of integrated adaptation strategies combining passive and active solutions to ensure long-term thermal comfort in residential buildings amid progressing climate change. The findings underscore that while passive solutions such as ventilation and shading remain effective under current climates, they will likely become insufficient as climate change progresses. Comprehensive and tailored adaptation strategies, combining passive and active measures, are essential for ensuring long-term thermal comfort in residential buildings under future climate conditions.

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Adapting Residential Buildings to Future Climates: Insights from Calibrated Building Energy Models

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Dóra Szagri,
  • Zsuzsa Szalay

摘要

The increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves driven by climate change necessitate advanced strategies to enhance thermal resilience in residential buildings. Long-term monitoring and calibrated dynamic simulations provide critical insights into building performance and adaptation opportunities, yet limited data from occupied buildings complicates model calibration. This research addresses these challenges by integrating on-site measurements with dynamic simulations to assess current overheating risks and future climate scenarios, and evaluate passive adaptation measures. A detailed geometric model of a prefabricated concrete panel building in Budapest was developed in DesignBuilder, comprising 262 zones. Model calibration was conducted over one month by adjusting ventilation rates and internal gains, incorporating actual window-opening schedules from monitoring data. Model accuracy was validated using statistical indicators, including NMBE and CVRMSE. Simulations considered IPCC climate pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) for 2030 and 2050, evaluating overheating using the ODH26 indicator. Results indicated a significant rise in overheating risks, doubling by 2030 (RCP 2.6), tripling by 2050 (RCP 8.5). Analyzed adaptation strategies included advanced ventilation, shading, upgraded glazing, and thermal insulation. Advanced ventilation initially reduced overheating by up to 43%, but its effectiveness diminished under future scenarios (21–26%). Combining ventilation with shading or improved glazing enhanced performance, reducing overheating by up to 59%. Insulation showed a dual impact, beneficial as mitigation but potentially exacerbating overheating without proper shading or ventilation. The findings highlight the necessity of integrated adaptation strategies combining passive and active solutions to ensure long-term thermal comfort in residential buildings amid progressing climate change. The findings underscore that while passive solutions such as ventilation and shading remain effective under current climates, they will likely become insufficient as climate change progresses. Comprehensive and tailored adaptation strategies, combining passive and active measures, are essential for ensuring long-term thermal comfort in residential buildings under future climate conditions.