This chapter synthesizes the implications of the historical evolution of seismic design regulations and zoning maps for exposure, vulnerability, and seismic risk modeling in North Macedonia. It emphasizes that differences in code concepts and associated seismic zonation’s—sometimes even between maps accompanying the same code—have caused significant spatial and temporal migration of design seismicity across the national territory. Analysis of intensity-zone coverage shows that, over successive official maps, the area assigned to low seismicity (IMCS ≤ VI) has decreased from about one-third of the territory to less than 6%, while high-intensity zones (VIII–IX) have expanded or shifted, leaving only a small fraction of the country effectively outside seismic design requirements. The chapter introduces design and construction eras (pre-code, low-, moderate-, and high-code, plus Eurocode) based on the joint enforcement of seismic, concrete, and reinforced-concrete standards, which are crucial for constructing realistic exposure models. Comparative analyses of the base-shear coefficient \(K\) for typical masonry and RC buildings across maps and codes illustrate how changes in zoning and design philosophy translate into different seismic demands and safety levels. The chapter concludes that a national-scale seismic risk map is still lacking, mainly due to the absence of a comprehensive, time-dependent exposure model, and highlights the relevance of the presented synthesis for all SFRY successor states.

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Discussion and Conclusions

  • Radmila Salic Makreska,
  • Zoran Milutinovic

摘要

This chapter synthesizes the implications of the historical evolution of seismic design regulations and zoning maps for exposure, vulnerability, and seismic risk modeling in North Macedonia. It emphasizes that differences in code concepts and associated seismic zonation’s—sometimes even between maps accompanying the same code—have caused significant spatial and temporal migration of design seismicity across the national territory. Analysis of intensity-zone coverage shows that, over successive official maps, the area assigned to low seismicity (IMCS ≤ VI) has decreased from about one-third of the territory to less than 6%, while high-intensity zones (VIII–IX) have expanded or shifted, leaving only a small fraction of the country effectively outside seismic design requirements. The chapter introduces design and construction eras (pre-code, low-, moderate-, and high-code, plus Eurocode) based on the joint enforcement of seismic, concrete, and reinforced-concrete standards, which are crucial for constructing realistic exposure models. Comparative analyses of the base-shear coefficient \(K\) for typical masonry and RC buildings across maps and codes illustrate how changes in zoning and design philosophy translate into different seismic demands and safety levels. The chapter concludes that a national-scale seismic risk map is still lacking, mainly due to the absence of a comprehensive, time-dependent exposure model, and highlights the relevance of the presented synthesis for all SFRY successor states.