This chapter reviews national-scale probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) studies that define seismic hazard for the territory of North Macedonia. It first discusses seminal domestic works, starting with Mihailov in (Towards stochastic modelling of seismicity, Doctoral Thesis, Zagreb, 1978), who developed six stochastic models of seismicity combining aerial and line sources and produced PSHA maps for return periods of 50–1000 years. Subsequent studies by Milutinovic et al. in (Spatial plan of Republic of Macedonia, conditions for occurrence and protection from seismic disasters, IZIIS Report 98-29, 1998) and Jordanovski et al. (1998) generated national hazard maps for the Spatial Plan of the Republic of Macedonia based on macroseismic catalogues and MSK-64 intensities. Salic in (Advanced approach to seismic hazard assessment in the Republic of Macedonia, Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Seismology (UKIM-IZIIS), Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, Doctoral dissertation. Skopje, R. Macedonia, March 2015) further advanced PSHA for RNM by integrating geological, neotectonic, seismological, strong-motion and GPS data, introducing a qualitatively new approach to modeling spatial seismicity patterns. The chapter also summarizes foreign studies (AIR Worldwide 2013; Lee and Trifunac in Soil Dyn Earthq Eng 100:504–517, 2017) that provide independent PSHA maps for RNM using global or regional GMPEs and high-resolution datasets. Collectively, these studies provide a rich but heterogeneous set of national hazard models that are essential for understanding methodological uncertainties and for benchmarking official zoning maps.

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Research Studies

  • Radmila Salic Makreska,
  • Zoran Milutinovic

摘要

This chapter reviews national-scale probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) studies that define seismic hazard for the territory of North Macedonia. It first discusses seminal domestic works, starting with Mihailov in (Towards stochastic modelling of seismicity, Doctoral Thesis, Zagreb, 1978), who developed six stochastic models of seismicity combining aerial and line sources and produced PSHA maps for return periods of 50–1000 years. Subsequent studies by Milutinovic et al. in (Spatial plan of Republic of Macedonia, conditions for occurrence and protection from seismic disasters, IZIIS Report 98-29, 1998) and Jordanovski et al. (1998) generated national hazard maps for the Spatial Plan of the Republic of Macedonia based on macroseismic catalogues and MSK-64 intensities. Salic in (Advanced approach to seismic hazard assessment in the Republic of Macedonia, Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Seismology (UKIM-IZIIS), Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, Doctoral dissertation. Skopje, R. Macedonia, March 2015) further advanced PSHA for RNM by integrating geological, neotectonic, seismological, strong-motion and GPS data, introducing a qualitatively new approach to modeling spatial seismicity patterns. The chapter also summarizes foreign studies (AIR Worldwide 2013; Lee and Trifunac in Soil Dyn Earthq Eng 100:504–517, 2017) that provide independent PSHA maps for RNM using global or regional GMPEs and high-resolution datasets. Collectively, these studies provide a rich but heterogeneous set of national hazard models that are essential for understanding methodological uncertainties and for benchmarking official zoning maps.