Transport infrastructure of cities and megalopolises, playing a significant role in the socio-economic life and increasing the transport accessibility of the population, has certain problems in development associated with the limitations of the urban environment. At the same time, force majeure factors can be observed in the development of individual types of urban public transport. The paper presents methods for analyzing transport infrastructure based on the use of different methodological approaches and models of transport planning. The factors influencing the development of urban public transport are presented in a systematized and formalized manner, models are presented that take into account both the significance and the effectiveness of overcoming them for the formation of long-term prospects for the development of urban infrastructure. The models allow us to determine bifurcation points in the development of the city’s transport infrastructure, when a certain decision on the infrastructure can qualitatively change the macro indicators of transport provision of the economy and the population. Examples of restrictions in the development of transport infrastructure in individual megalopolises of the Russian Federation are presented.