The Expert Assessment
摘要
This study investigates the role of the expert assessment within the Bank of Italy’s ICAS, namely the stage, performed by two analysts, that follows the production of the statistical rating for a non-financial firm to yield its ‘full rating’. We have two aims: to document recent methodological enhancements, including the integration of climate-related risks and sector analysis, and to estimate the added value of the expert assessment in the rating process. The study leverages over 25,000 expert assessments from 2016 to 2022, including default events. Our results show that the expert assessment significantly improves both the predictive power and the discriminatory power of the full ratings as against the statistical ratings, with an increase of the AUROC of around 2 percentage points. Furthermore, the expert assessment enhances robustness during periods of macroeconomic stress. Recent methodological innovations have improved transparency and consistency, fostering the integration of new risk sources. Our findings confirm the value of combining statistical models with the expert assessment and suggest further developments, such as the integration of ESG and geopolitical risks, to strengthen the effectiveness of the ICAS framework.