This chapter analyses the effects of recent crises, including the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the earthquake of February 6, 2023, on the Turkish real estate market. The research used weekly data covering the period from March 2020 to March 2023. The data was segmented based on the periods of crises to facilitate a descriptive statistical analysis. Conversely, the primary analysis employed the Multivariate Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (MGARCH)–Baba-Engle-Kraft-Kroner (BEKK) methodology, which captured the effects of the crises by using dummy variables. The results indicate that real estate prices experienced significant fluctuations during the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Notably, during these two periods, reversible means were not considered. Given that perceptions of the crises may differ among investors and customers, the intensity of the reaction to a crisis may also suggest an asymmetric response. The findings indicate that Turkish Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) should adopt more diversified investment strategies to better prepare for times of crisis.

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The Impacts of Recent Crises on REITs in Türkiye

  • Harun Tanrıvermiş,
  • Monsurat Ayojimi Salami,
  • Tobias Just

摘要

This chapter analyses the effects of recent crises, including the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the earthquake of February 6, 2023, on the Turkish real estate market. The research used weekly data covering the period from March 2020 to March 2023. The data was segmented based on the periods of crises to facilitate a descriptive statistical analysis. Conversely, the primary analysis employed the Multivariate Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (MGARCH)–Baba-Engle-Kraft-Kroner (BEKK) methodology, which captured the effects of the crises by using dummy variables. The results indicate that real estate prices experienced significant fluctuations during the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Notably, during these two periods, reversible means were not considered. Given that perceptions of the crises may differ among investors and customers, the intensity of the reaction to a crisis may also suggest an asymmetric response. The findings indicate that Turkish Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) should adopt more diversified investment strategies to better prepare for times of crisis.