Evacuation planning during large-scale natural disasters remains a complex and critical challenge for ensuring the safety and survival of affected population. Effective evacuation strategies must optimize decision-making for decreasing the time to evacuate and thereby, increasing the number of people who remain alive after destruction, significantly improving medical outcomes for individuals in urgent need of care. This paper presented the discrete-event simulation model for flood evacuation that models real-world conditions and dynamically adjusts to evolving factors, such as varying types of vehicles, evacuees with different medical priorities and multiple shelter options. The model’s objective is to facilitate rapid, safe, and prioritized evacuation based on the individuals’ medical status and urgency. This framework provides decision-makers with insights into essential evacuation parameters, including: (1) whether an evacuee decides to evacuate or stay, (2) the optimal waiting time before departure, (3) the most suitable mode of transportation for each evacuee, and (4) assignment of shelters based on evacuee priority levels. Additionally, a throttling mechanism serves as a traffic control strategy to alleviate congestion and optimize traffic flow, reducing total evacuation time. This model offers a comprehensive tool for simulating and evaluating various evacuation scenarios, providing key insights for enhancing evacuation effectiveness in flood emergencies. The results of this study demonstrate how strategic decisions in transportation, shelter allocation, and traffic control can significantly impact evacuation outcomes, ultimately improving both survival rates and the efficiency of emergency response operations.

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Agent-Based Flood Evacuation Modeling: Optimizing Transportation, Shelter Allocation and Traffic Control

  • Navroop Kaur,
  • Harjot Kaur

摘要

Evacuation planning during large-scale natural disasters remains a complex and critical challenge for ensuring the safety and survival of affected population. Effective evacuation strategies must optimize decision-making for decreasing the time to evacuate and thereby, increasing the number of people who remain alive after destruction, significantly improving medical outcomes for individuals in urgent need of care. This paper presented the discrete-event simulation model for flood evacuation that models real-world conditions and dynamically adjusts to evolving factors, such as varying types of vehicles, evacuees with different medical priorities and multiple shelter options. The model’s objective is to facilitate rapid, safe, and prioritized evacuation based on the individuals’ medical status and urgency. This framework provides decision-makers with insights into essential evacuation parameters, including: (1) whether an evacuee decides to evacuate or stay, (2) the optimal waiting time before departure, (3) the most suitable mode of transportation for each evacuee, and (4) assignment of shelters based on evacuee priority levels. Additionally, a throttling mechanism serves as a traffic control strategy to alleviate congestion and optimize traffic flow, reducing total evacuation time. This model offers a comprehensive tool for simulating and evaluating various evacuation scenarios, providing key insights for enhancing evacuation effectiveness in flood emergencies. The results of this study demonstrate how strategic decisions in transportation, shelter allocation, and traffic control can significantly impact evacuation outcomes, ultimately improving both survival rates and the efficiency of emergency response operations.