Agent-Based Simulation of Forest Fire Spread with NetLogo
摘要
Forest fires represent a significant and growing threat to natural ecosystems and human settlements, with their unpredictable behavior and capacity for rapid expansion over time, creating substantial challenges for effective prevention, control, and mitigation. This paper presents the development of a forest fire simulator designed to model and predict fire spread under varying environmental conditions. Such a simulator must consider how fire spreads in different locations and climate conditions, showing the final shape of the fire in a given period of time. Using the NetLogo agent-based modeling platform, a simulated forest environment was created in which trees function as autonomous agents interacting with one another and the environment. Identifying and understanding the risk factors that increase the likelihood of a fire occurring, as well as those that contribute to its spread and intensity, is essential for the development of an accurate forest fire simulator. Such a simulator can integrate the complex interactions among these variables to produce dynamic visualizations of fire progression, allowing users to evaluate different scenarios and make informed decisions for preventing, controlling and fighting forest fires. By incorporating key factors—such as vegetation density, temperature, humidity, topography, and wind direction—the system calculates the probability of fire propagation and generates visual representations of fire behavior over time. This tool allows users to forecast fire behavior and assess response strategies proactively, thereby improving the accuracy and efficiency of firefighting efforts. In addition, the simulator yields significant social benefits, especially for older adults residing in fire-prone areas, by supporting early warning systems, enabling prompt evacuations, and mitigating their susceptibility to fire-related risks through enhanced preparedness and coordinated response measures.