This chapter summarizes the six principal proposals from the OSCE Minsk Group in a table, including the main elements of each proposal. The chapter then examines the principles that the Minsk Group tried to address in each proposal, the Minsk Group’s main achievements, and addresses extensively the three main international law principles at issue: the pacific resolution of disputes, self-determination, and territorial integrity. The Minsk Group was primarily a conflict management mechanism, preserving the 1994 ceasefire until the 2020 war. Its greatest achievement was developing the Basic/Madrid Principles (2007), which sought to balance territorial integrity (Azerbaijan’s position) with self-determination (Armenia/Nagorno-Karabakh’s position). The principles provided a framework including the return of occupied territories, an interim status for Nagorno-Karabakh with international security guarantees, and a future referendum or “legally binding expression of will” on final status. However, the peace process ultimately failed due to fundamental disagreements, with both sides viewing the resolution in binary, zero-sum terms. The conflict highlighted the limits of international law when pitted against realpolitik. While Nagorno-Karabakh met the criteria for statehood and its conditions for secession were like Kosovo, it was denied recognition due to political considerations and lack of geopolitical support, unlike Kosovo. The outcome—Azerbaijan’s military conquest and the ethnic cleansing of Armenians—underscores the failure of peaceful resolution mechanisms and the gap between legal principles and their practical application.

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OSCE Mediation, Shortfalls, Real Politics, and Rules-Based International Order

  • Hrair Balian

摘要

This chapter summarizes the six principal proposals from the OSCE Minsk Group in a table, including the main elements of each proposal. The chapter then examines the principles that the Minsk Group tried to address in each proposal, the Minsk Group’s main achievements, and addresses extensively the three main international law principles at issue: the pacific resolution of disputes, self-determination, and territorial integrity. The Minsk Group was primarily a conflict management mechanism, preserving the 1994 ceasefire until the 2020 war. Its greatest achievement was developing the Basic/Madrid Principles (2007), which sought to balance territorial integrity (Azerbaijan’s position) with self-determination (Armenia/Nagorno-Karabakh’s position). The principles provided a framework including the return of occupied territories, an interim status for Nagorno-Karabakh with international security guarantees, and a future referendum or “legally binding expression of will” on final status. However, the peace process ultimately failed due to fundamental disagreements, with both sides viewing the resolution in binary, zero-sum terms. The conflict highlighted the limits of international law when pitted against realpolitik. While Nagorno-Karabakh met the criteria for statehood and its conditions for secession were like Kosovo, it was denied recognition due to political considerations and lack of geopolitical support, unlike Kosovo. The outcome—Azerbaijan’s military conquest and the ethnic cleansing of Armenians—underscores the failure of peaceful resolution mechanisms and the gap between legal principles and their practical application.