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This study quantifies the causal impact of internal carbon pricing mechanisms on emission reduction performance in China’s power grid sector by integrating Propensity Score Matching (PSM) and Difference-in-Differences (DID) methodologies. Analyzing 2010–2023 panel data with rigorous controls for selection bias and endogeneity through fixed effects models and instrumental variables, we first demonstrate aggregate effectiveness with 37% total emission reduction and 62% decrease in per-unit emissions. Crucially, causal attribution is confirmed via PSM revealing a 17.5-ton average emission gap between policy adopters and non-adopters, while DID isolates a 23-ton net reduction directly attributable to carbon pricing. Significant strategic heterogeneity emerges as large enterprises achieve 35.3% reductions (versus 16.5% in small firms) and renewable-focused firms reduce emissions by 51.4% (versus 14.3% in coal-dependent counterparts). These findings prove carbon pricing enhances emission reduction through technological innovation and energy management optimization, providing policymakers with actionable evidence for designing differentiated low-carbon transition strategies in heterogeneous power grid systems.

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Causal Identification of Heterogeneous Emission Responses: Internal Carbon Pricing Efficacy in China's Power Grid via PSM-DID Framework

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Nian Liu,
  • Bao Tang,
  • Hui Chen,
  • Xiaofeng Zhao

摘要

This study quantifies the causal impact of internal carbon pricing mechanisms on emission reduction performance in China’s power grid sector by integrating Propensity Score Matching (PSM) and Difference-in-Differences (DID) methodologies. Analyzing 2010–2023 panel data with rigorous controls for selection bias and endogeneity through fixed effects models and instrumental variables, we first demonstrate aggregate effectiveness with 37% total emission reduction and 62% decrease in per-unit emissions. Crucially, causal attribution is confirmed via PSM revealing a 17.5-ton average emission gap between policy adopters and non-adopters, while DID isolates a 23-ton net reduction directly attributable to carbon pricing. Significant strategic heterogeneity emerges as large enterprises achieve 35.3% reductions (versus 16.5% in small firms) and renewable-focused firms reduce emissions by 51.4% (versus 14.3% in coal-dependent counterparts). These findings prove carbon pricing enhances emission reduction through technological innovation and energy management optimization, providing policymakers with actionable evidence for designing differentiated low-carbon transition strategies in heterogeneous power grid systems.