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Driven by ecological construction in China’s Greater Bay Area and “dual carbon” goals, this study quantifies non-carbon benefits (NCBs) of forest carbon sinks and designs equitable compensation mechanisms. Analysing 18 projects in Qingyuan (2018–2023), we developed an ecology-economy-society evaluation system using integrated AHP-entropy weighting with TOPSIS modelling. Results show annual NCBs averaged ¥1.27 billion (USD 0.18bn), comprising ecological (67.7%), economic (24.4%), and social (7.9%) benefits. NCB indices correlated strongly with forest coverage (R2 = 0.689) and inversely with regional GDP (R2 = 0.32). Based on carbon-NCB coupling, tiered compensation standards were established: ¥235/ton CO2 (high-NCB northern zones), ¥182/ton (central), and ¥128/ton (southern)—1.9–3.6x higher than prevailing rates. Implementation could raise farmer incomes by 22.3% and boost carbon forest survival by 15.7%. The framework provides a replicable model for valuing NCBs and advancing ecological compensation in metropolitan conservation areas.

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Quantifying Non-carbon Benefits and Designing Tiered Ecological Compensation: Evidence from Forest Carbon Sink Projects in Qingyuan, China

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Xiyun Chen,
  • Yujin Liu,
  • Zhide Zheng,
  • Rui Tian

摘要

Driven by ecological construction in China’s Greater Bay Area and “dual carbon” goals, this study quantifies non-carbon benefits (NCBs) of forest carbon sinks and designs equitable compensation mechanisms. Analysing 18 projects in Qingyuan (2018–2023), we developed an ecology-economy-society evaluation system using integrated AHP-entropy weighting with TOPSIS modelling. Results show annual NCBs averaged ¥1.27 billion (USD 0.18bn), comprising ecological (67.7%), economic (24.4%), and social (7.9%) benefits. NCB indices correlated strongly with forest coverage (R2 = 0.689) and inversely with regional GDP (R2 = 0.32). Based on carbon-NCB coupling, tiered compensation standards were established: ¥235/ton CO2 (high-NCB northern zones), ¥182/ton (central), and ¥128/ton (southern)—1.9–3.6x higher than prevailing rates. Implementation could raise farmer incomes by 22.3% and boost carbon forest survival by 15.7%. The framework provides a replicable model for valuing NCBs and advancing ecological compensation in metropolitan conservation areas.