The main objective of this article is to examine the similarities and differences between intelligence and foresight. To achieve this, the study combines an analysis of their historical roots, theoretical definitions, epistemological foundations and operational processes with a systematic literature review of academic publications in both fields. Both intelligence and foresight aim to inform decision making under conditions of uncertainty by producing anticipatory knowledge, though they also differ in some important respects. The literature review reveals that, while overlap in their practical applications is acknowledged, explicit theoretical integration between the two remains limited. The findings support the view that intelligence and foresight share much in common but are not identical. The article calls for greater cross-disciplinary engagement to foster mutual learning and strengthen anticipatory capacity in policy and security contexts.

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Comparing Intelligence and Foresight: Fraternal Twins?

  • Max Stucki

摘要

The main objective of this article is to examine the similarities and differences between intelligence and foresight. To achieve this, the study combines an analysis of their historical roots, theoretical definitions, epistemological foundations and operational processes with a systematic literature review of academic publications in both fields. Both intelligence and foresight aim to inform decision making under conditions of uncertainty by producing anticipatory knowledge, though they also differ in some important respects. The literature review reveals that, while overlap in their practical applications is acknowledged, explicit theoretical integration between the two remains limited. The findings support the view that intelligence and foresight share much in common but are not identical. The article calls for greater cross-disciplinary engagement to foster mutual learning and strengthen anticipatory capacity in policy and security contexts.