Why Civil War Recurrence Is More Likely After Ceasefires Than After Peace Agreements
摘要
Peace is less stable after mere ceasefires than after peace agreements. This chapter uses quantitative methods and Qualitative Comparative Analysis to assess possible explanations for this difference. Additionally, it conducts case studies on the collapse of ceasefires in Croatia in 1995, Chechnya in the Russian Federation in 1999, and Sri Lanka in 2005. It finds that civil wars that end with a ceasefire tend to occur in conflicts that are more difficult to pacify, mobilize less international assistance, result in a divergence between the distribution of military power and the distribution of political benefits, and perpetuate a military balance as well as an opportunity for resuming the civil war. Moreover, the chapter demonstrates that the so-called information problem seems to be overstated in research on civil war recurrence.