This chapter fills a significant gap in understanding the shock transmission through Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) export-based networks by investigating the macroeconomic consequences of global food prices shocks on household consumption in 27 member states of the European Union (EU). Existing literature has documented the impact of commodity price fluctuations on various aggregate economic measures. Still, less work has addressed their differential effects in more detail, such as on household spending across the EU and their importance in the context of SMEs in international trade. To clarify, this research employs an innovative Bayesian Global Vector Autoregression (BGVAR) model, incorporating an export-based weight matrix that captures the economic interdependencies among EU member states from the perspective of SME trade connectiveness. The results show a significant and heterogeneous effect of food price shocks on household consumption, with countries that are more dependent on food imports showing larger declines in household expenditure. The trade linkages via SMEs serve to amplify these shocks, thus indicating the need for interventions that are specifically targeted at these channels. Considering the specific role of SMEs in international trade, the study advises the EU to respond by putting stronger emphasis on strengthening a more resilient food supply chain, scaling-up sustainable agronomic practices and promote well-targeted social safety nets to protect vulnerable households. This study provides a comprehensive assessment of the potential impacts of food price volatility on households and SMEs within the EU, offering valuable insights for policymakers seeking to stabilize food prices and mitigate negative consequences across socio-economic strata.

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Food Price Shock Transmission Through SME Exporting Networks: A Bayesian GVAR Approach

  • Elhoussin Ouassou,
  • Phemelo Tamasiga

摘要

This chapter fills a significant gap in understanding the shock transmission through Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) export-based networks by investigating the macroeconomic consequences of global food prices shocks on household consumption in 27 member states of the European Union (EU). Existing literature has documented the impact of commodity price fluctuations on various aggregate economic measures. Still, less work has addressed their differential effects in more detail, such as on household spending across the EU and their importance in the context of SMEs in international trade. To clarify, this research employs an innovative Bayesian Global Vector Autoregression (BGVAR) model, incorporating an export-based weight matrix that captures the economic interdependencies among EU member states from the perspective of SME trade connectiveness. The results show a significant and heterogeneous effect of food price shocks on household consumption, with countries that are more dependent on food imports showing larger declines in household expenditure. The trade linkages via SMEs serve to amplify these shocks, thus indicating the need for interventions that are specifically targeted at these channels. Considering the specific role of SMEs in international trade, the study advises the EU to respond by putting stronger emphasis on strengthening a more resilient food supply chain, scaling-up sustainable agronomic practices and promote well-targeted social safety nets to protect vulnerable households. This study provides a comprehensive assessment of the potential impacts of food price volatility on households and SMEs within the EU, offering valuable insights for policymakers seeking to stabilize food prices and mitigate negative consequences across socio-economic strata.