The Electric Vehicle Transition
摘要
Automobiles are main sources of pollution; decarbonization of road transport is a major objective around the world. The electric vehicle (EV) technology is mature and somehow competitive with the development of lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries. Affordability, performance, and range are the first criteria that attract drivers to invest in EVs. Countries with the same objective of EV to represent 100% of new registrations witness different progress, depending on context and policy, Norway and Iceland are currently leading. Countries with the highest EV penetration are almost systematically those with the highest cost of ownership of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles and those with the most important subsidies. In this paper is presented the interplay between context, policy, and technology to drive EV transition. Acquisition and operation cost, a combination of technology and policy, represent the factors that will guarantee the sustainability of EVs as the next generation of vehicles. For EV to be more affordable, it will largely depend on battery cost. Batteries are key in the performance, reliability, competitiveness, acquisition, and operation cost of EVs. Despite the undeniable progress, for EV to match the performance of ICE vehicles in range and lifespan, current battery technology needs to be improved. As novelties introduced in this field, along with a non-subsidy approach to the development of EVs, in this paper is presented an upgraded diffusion model of EV technology based on the traditional S-curve. It also presented an analysis of a potential secondhand market that is necessary to guarantee a full and sustainable EV transition.