Housing affordability has become an increasingly critical issue in the United Kingdom, driven by rising house prices and rent levels that outpace income growth. This study leverages machine learning and data-driven techniques to analyse and predict affordability trends across both ownership and rental markets. We utilize time series forecasting (Prophet) to project future house prices at national and regional levels, apply K-Means clustering to segment regions by rent-based affordability, and develop a Random Forest classifier to predict where individuals can afford to rent based on salary. Drawing from diverse public datasets, including housing prices, rent data, income, inflation, and mortgage rates, we construct engineered features such as affordability indices and rent-to-income ratios. Our findings reveal significant spatial disparities in affordability, strong urban-rural contrasts, and persistent affordability stress in high-demand areas such as London and Manchester. The models provide predictive insights for housing planners, policymakers, and tenants navigating a volatile housing landscape.

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Analyzing and Predicting Housing Affordability Trends in the UK Using Machine Learning

  • Ebin Varghese,
  • Maybin.K. Muyeba,
  • Azadeh Mohammadi

摘要

Housing affordability has become an increasingly critical issue in the United Kingdom, driven by rising house prices and rent levels that outpace income growth. This study leverages machine learning and data-driven techniques to analyse and predict affordability trends across both ownership and rental markets. We utilize time series forecasting (Prophet) to project future house prices at national and regional levels, apply K-Means clustering to segment regions by rent-based affordability, and develop a Random Forest classifier to predict where individuals can afford to rent based on salary. Drawing from diverse public datasets, including housing prices, rent data, income, inflation, and mortgage rates, we construct engineered features such as affordability indices and rent-to-income ratios. Our findings reveal significant spatial disparities in affordability, strong urban-rural contrasts, and persistent affordability stress in high-demand areas such as London and Manchester. The models provide predictive insights for housing planners, policymakers, and tenants navigating a volatile housing landscape.