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Monsoon rainfall is crucial for rain-fed agricultureAgriculture in the Barak River CatchmentBarak river catchment. This study examines changes in monsoon rainfall characteristics over three periods (1951–1980, 1981–2010, and 2011–2024) and their implications for agricultural sustainabilitySustainability using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHPAnalytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)). Key indicators analyzed include the number of rainy days, duration of the longest spell, and rainfall intensity. Results show a decline of ~ 20 rainy days, ~ 30 days in the longest spell duration, and ~ 100 mm in total spell rainfall. The Meghalaya region recorded the sharpest reductions, reflecting intensified variability linked to circulation changes and deforestation-driven land-use shifts. To assess agricultural resilience, an Agricultural SustainabilitySustainability Index (ASI) was developed throughGeographic Information System (GIS) GIS-based spatial analysis, integrating six criteria: Vegetation Health Index (VHI), soil, rainfall, population density, elevation, and water proximity. AHPAnalytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)-based weighting ranked rainfall as the most influential factor (0.54), followed by VHI, soil, and population density. Findings reveal growing vulnerability: highly sustainable land decreased from 29.97% to 16.21%, while marginally sustainable land rose by 3%. Unsuitable agricultural land also expanded slightly from 9.67 to 9.95%. Overall, the results highlight the critical role of monsoon rainfall in shaping agricultural sustainability. Declining rainfall and reduced spell duration are driving vulnerability in rain-fed farming systems, threatening long-term food securityFood security. This study provides vital insights for climate adaptationAdaptation, water management, and sustainable agricultural planning in the Barak River basin.

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Monsoon Rainfall Spells and Their Impact on Agricultural Sustainability: An AHP-Based Approach in the Barak River Catchment

  • 章节

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Ashesh Rudra Paul,
  • Tilottama Chakraborty,
  • Mrinmoy Majumder

摘要

Monsoon rainfall is crucial for rain-fed agricultureAgriculture in the Barak River CatchmentBarak river catchment. This study examines changes in monsoon rainfall characteristics over three periods (1951–1980, 1981–2010, and 2011–2024) and their implications for agricultural sustainabilitySustainability using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHPAnalytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)). Key indicators analyzed include the number of rainy days, duration of the longest spell, and rainfall intensity. Results show a decline of ~ 20 rainy days, ~ 30 days in the longest spell duration, and ~ 100 mm in total spell rainfall. The Meghalaya region recorded the sharpest reductions, reflecting intensified variability linked to circulation changes and deforestation-driven land-use shifts. To assess agricultural resilience, an Agricultural SustainabilitySustainability Index (ASI) was developed throughGeographic Information System (GIS) GIS-based spatial analysis, integrating six criteria: Vegetation Health Index (VHI), soil, rainfall, population density, elevation, and water proximity. AHPAnalytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)-based weighting ranked rainfall as the most influential factor (0.54), followed by VHI, soil, and population density. Findings reveal growing vulnerability: highly sustainable land decreased from 29.97% to 16.21%, while marginally sustainable land rose by 3%. Unsuitable agricultural land also expanded slightly from 9.67 to 9.95%. Overall, the results highlight the critical role of monsoon rainfall in shaping agricultural sustainability. Declining rainfall and reduced spell duration are driving vulnerability in rain-fed farming systems, threatening long-term food securityFood security. This study provides vital insights for climate adaptationAdaptation, water management, and sustainable agricultural planning in the Barak River basin.