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A scenario is essentially a story about the future that indicates what the future may be like as well as how events might unfold. Unlike projections and forecasts, which tend to be more quantitative and more circumscribed in their key assumptions, scenarios are rational narratives dealing with potentially far-reaching changes. A scenario may include a history of developments, a possible course of events leading to an actual outcome, an imagined future, or some combination of these. Four sustainability scenarios are mapped along two axes: Sustainability-Collapse and Environment-Economy then counterposed with each other for purposes of pairwise comparison and analysis. The Grey Sky Scenario evokes a cloudy future. Multiple crises reinforce each other endangering the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Periodic cycles of good and bad decisions predominate. The Orange Sky Scenario is a precautionary tale of time running out with the sun setting on available options to maintain humanity’s well-being and nature’s benefits. Complexification of decision-making has come about mainly due to the tension between energy security and the need for a climate conducive energy mix at all governance scales. The White Sky Scenario paints an image of the blue sky actually turning white due to misguided solar geoengineering attempts designed to offset atmospheric carbon dioxide rise. Biodiversity loss is irreversible in several biomes and its dampening effects on climate change are lost. Deep uncertainty and unresolved risks dominate societies due to unpredictable and near random decision-making; and the Blue Sky Scenario evokes a recovering planet and a more equitable global society that capitalises on the positive aspects of technology, including its sequencing and rate of change. Wise collective decision-making prevails due to dynamic epistemic equilibria and the effective unity of processes and outcomes. A Sustainable Development Goal has been added to the original 17 to explicitly and comprehensively guide collective decision-making and taking.

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Planning Scenarios as Collective Perspectives

  • 章节

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Epaminondas Bellos

摘要

A scenario is essentially a story about the future that indicates what the future may be like as well as how events might unfold. Unlike projections and forecasts, which tend to be more quantitative and more circumscribed in their key assumptions, scenarios are rational narratives dealing with potentially far-reaching changes. A scenario may include a history of developments, a possible course of events leading to an actual outcome, an imagined future, or some combination of these. Four sustainability scenarios are mapped along two axes: Sustainability-Collapse and Environment-Economy then counterposed with each other for purposes of pairwise comparison and analysis. The Grey Sky Scenario evokes a cloudy future. Multiple crises reinforce each other endangering the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Periodic cycles of good and bad decisions predominate. The Orange Sky Scenario is a precautionary tale of time running out with the sun setting on available options to maintain humanity’s well-being and nature’s benefits. Complexification of decision-making has come about mainly due to the tension between energy security and the need for a climate conducive energy mix at all governance scales. The White Sky Scenario paints an image of the blue sky actually turning white due to misguided solar geoengineering attempts designed to offset atmospheric carbon dioxide rise. Biodiversity loss is irreversible in several biomes and its dampening effects on climate change are lost. Deep uncertainty and unresolved risks dominate societies due to unpredictable and near random decision-making; and the Blue Sky Scenario evokes a recovering planet and a more equitable global society that capitalises on the positive aspects of technology, including its sequencing and rate of change. Wise collective decision-making prevails due to dynamic epistemic equilibria and the effective unity of processes and outcomes. A Sustainable Development Goal has been added to the original 17 to explicitly and comprehensively guide collective decision-making and taking.