Negotiation Collapse: Deadlock Under Conditions of HUSSS
摘要
This chapter integrates the variables of the HUSSS framework in the context of the Venezuelan deadlock scenario. Combined, these variables characterized the decade-long deadlock and ultimately led to the collapse of negotiations. High levels of pernicious and affective polarization, intra-party fractionalization, and entrenched self-serving interests are present across all stakeholders, although in varying degrees—within the Maduro regime throughout its multiple power circles, the opposition across its diverse factions, and the international community in an evolving geopolitical environment. Self-serving profiting is the most impactful deterrent against effective negotiations, as significant monetary and political incentives exist to preserve the status quo at all costs. In the case of fragmentation and polarization, the former poses numerous challenges for the opposition in particular, while mutual demonizing narratives have been fueling the latter on both sides. The following sections describe how these factors reinforce the crises in Venezuela and normalize authoritarian rule, while making a negotiated solution increasingly unlikely.