With the rapid rise of China’s subway industry, the construction pace of shield tunnels has also significantly accelerated. However, both tunnel boring and earthquakes can cause ground subsidence, which can damage surface buildings and even cause collapses. In order to avoid similar problems, this study used numerical simulation techniques to explore the effects of construction parameters and seismic waves on surface settlement during the construction of subway shield tunnels. The main focus was on in-depth analysis of the thickness of the grouting layer, excavation pressure, tunnel depth ratio, and the effect of seismic waves. The research results show that: (1) Increasing the thickness of the grouting layer can help control surface subsidence, however, if the grouting layer is too thick, it may have adverse effects on the stability of the rock and soil layers. (2) If the excavation pressure approaches the critical point of stress release on the cutting surface, the extreme value of surface settlement will show a negative correlation with it; Once the pressure exceeds this critical point, the extreme value of surface subsidence is positively correlated with it. (3) As the burial depth gradually increases, the extreme value of lateral surface subsidence first rises and then falls, which is closely related to the occurrence of soil arching effect. (4) The force generated by crustal vibration has a significant negative effect on the axial displacement of tunnels, and the vibration acceleration also plays a role in the maximum displacement of key monitoring points. After an earthquake, the subsidence of the ground is difficult to restore to its original state due to the relaxation of geological structures and deformation of supporting structures. This study provides a theoretical basis for adjusting construction parameters and determining the stability of tunnels under earthquake influence.