Hidden Markov regression models (HMRMs) serve as a potent tool for analyzing diverse time-dependent data structures within a regression framework. The literature has witnessed significant progress in recent years, particularly in the context of matrix-variate longitudinal data. In this study, we apply a set of parsimonious matrix-variate HMRMs to evaluate the relationship between unemployment and crime rates across Italian provinces. Leveraging the flexibility inherent in HMRMs and the matrix-variate structure, we gain valuable insights. Various states are identified, and the transitions of provinces between these states are examined over time.

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Using Matrix-Variate Hidden Markov Regressions for Analyzing Crime Data

  • Salvatore D. Tomarchioa,
  • Antonio Punzo,
  • Antonello Maruotti

摘要

Hidden Markov regression models (HMRMs) serve as a potent tool for analyzing diverse time-dependent data structures within a regression framework. The literature has witnessed significant progress in recent years, particularly in the context of matrix-variate longitudinal data. In this study, we apply a set of parsimonious matrix-variate HMRMs to evaluate the relationship between unemployment and crime rates across Italian provinces. Leveraging the flexibility inherent in HMRMs and the matrix-variate structure, we gain valuable insights. Various states are identified, and the transitions of provinces between these states are examined over time.