Modeling Resilience in Food Systems: A Theoretical Framework for Analyzing the UK Pork Industry
摘要
Food security, specified as widespread retrieval to satisfactory, risk-free, and nutritious food, is a intricate and multi-dimensional problem incorporating agricultural, ecological, and sociological systems. This paper studies food security through the development of a stylised quantitative model aimed at the UK pork sector, an agricultural system shaped by natural, financial, and societal aspects. The model utilises combined ordinary differential equations (ODES) to acquire dynamic ex- changes among key elements, such as capital, supply, demand, and price, demonstrating core financial and ecological operations. Bayesian evaluation techniques are used to evaluate parameter uncertainty and enhance the model’s resilience in dealing with interruptions like Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic, which have strained supply chains and work domains. The results deliver understandings into the enduring capability of the UK pork sector while providing methodological devices for assessing food system durability in the face of natural and market variations.