The ability to make strategic decisions and anticipate competitors’ actions is crucial for companies to remain competitive in rapidly evolving industries. Technology roadmapping provides a comprehensive approach to assess technologies, their application, and developmental timelines. However, constructing an accurate roadmap poses challenges due to the dynamic market environment and the subjective nature of project evaluation. This paper studies the use of game theory for technology roadmapping to enhance strategic decision-making. Challenges in applying game theory, including perfect information assumptions, rational actor assumptions, utility functions modeling and successive decision-making, are examined. The necessity to bring application domain knowledge into the equation suggests an approach to bring knowledge representation techniques into game theory and see how such approaches can enhance decision-making. Metagame analysis and its branches are examined.

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How to Better Integrate Game Theory into Technological Forecasting: Some Challenges to Tackle

  • Ariane Beaudoin-Bussières,
  • Elise Vareilles,
  • Rob Vingerhoeds

摘要

The ability to make strategic decisions and anticipate competitors’ actions is crucial for companies to remain competitive in rapidly evolving industries. Technology roadmapping provides a comprehensive approach to assess technologies, their application, and developmental timelines. However, constructing an accurate roadmap poses challenges due to the dynamic market environment and the subjective nature of project evaluation. This paper studies the use of game theory for technology roadmapping to enhance strategic decision-making. Challenges in applying game theory, including perfect information assumptions, rational actor assumptions, utility functions modeling and successive decision-making, are examined. The necessity to bring application domain knowledge into the equation suggests an approach to bring knowledge representation techniques into game theory and see how such approaches can enhance decision-making. Metagame analysis and its branches are examined.