The study explores temperature and rainfall influence on wheat crop production in the Faisalabad district from 2008 to 2022. Pakistan, being particularly prone to the effects of climate change, faces significant threats to its agricultural sector, particularly wheat—a key crop for national food security. The study analyzed the relationship between climatic variables (Temperature and Rainfall) and wheat production using meteorological data from NASA’s POWER website and wheat yield statistics from the Crop Reporting Service of the Government of Punjab. The results reveal that moderate rainfall (15–20 mm) during the wheat-growing season is beneficial for stable yields, while excessive or insufficient rainfall leads to yield declines. Temperature also plays a crucial role, with optimal yields observed at average temperatures around 17 °C, while temperatures exceeding 18 °C cause heat stress and reduced productivity. The study shows that there is a significant threat to wheat farming in Faisalabad due to climate change, emphasizing the necessity for adaptive strategies to mitigate the effects of fluctuating rainfall and rising temperatures. The results indicate a complicated relationship between weather conditions and wheat yield, underlying the importance of employing sustainable agricultural practices to ensure food security amid climate fluctuations.