The Future of Work: AI’s Threat to Jobs and Economic Stability
摘要
The nature of work is changing. When the first jobs report was released in 1919, the Bureau of Labor Statistics included 15 bullet points that described “occupations for which the employment office is now finding it difficult to fill applications,” such as locomotive engineer, civil engineer, and stenotypist. For instance, in the final quarter of 2017, in the United States, some workers are holding down jobs that did not then exist: for example, computer network support specialists, industrial-organizational psychologists, and medical secretaries. By one conservative estimate, over 800,000 people around the world are working as drivers for ride-sharing companies. In the face of this rapid decline in demand for such work, it has been suggested that taxing robots could help slow down the automation of work. Technological progress, notably the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence, has already done much to reshape the nature of work in large economies. In the future, robots may develop the ability to reason, plan, and interact with the outside world, enabling them to perform a range of manual tasks that currently reside in the domain of humans. Significant repercussions are likely to follow this further advancement. Already today, some professions have seen a decrease in demand, as machines potentially threaten to make significant numbers of human workers redundant, for example, by automating tasks usually performed by clerks and cashiers. As machines become increasingly intelligent, they may increasingly be capable of performing a wider array of tasks. The sizable number of people currently employed as drivers, truckers, and delivery persons is likely to be the most immediate witnesses to the first such wave of dislocation. The result could be a significant disruption in labor markets.