Energy security, climate change, and issues related to food and water are presenting significant challenges to the governance of international relations in a world that is already fraught with instability. Projections indicate that future climate change will likely reduce the availability of critical natural resources in various regions, potentially affecting the global landscape. The conflict related to climate change has largely been overlooked, even though it carries significant consequences. Through causal pathways involving natural disasters and declining or fluctuating resource availability, several analysts associate climate change with an increased probability of war. There is considerable consensus that climate change can play a role in exacerbating conflict, particularly under specific circumstances and through mechanisms. The existing literature indicates that climatic conditions can exacerbate conflict in agriculturally reliant areas, particularly when these conditions intersect with various socioeconomic and political factors, including low economic development and political marginalization. This study contends that the diminishing quality and availability of essential natural resources for sustaining livelihoods jeopardizes human security. This trend is expected to persist in the future due to climate change. Climate change is anticipated to diminish the capacity of governments to provide the vital opportunities and services necessary for individuals to sustain their livelihoods. This paper briefly assesses how natural disasters, resource scarcity, and global climate change may influence the probability of violent conflict in the future. This study subsequently explores strategies to improve the investigation of the link between climate change, conflict, and displacement while offering detailed policy recommendations to tackle this potential challenge.

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Climate Change-Induced Conflicts: Examining the Interplay Between Natural Resource Depletion and Human Displacement Due to Insecurity in Africa

  • Kolawole Afuwape,
  • Sarah Ayanwale

摘要

Energy security, climate change, and issues related to food and water are presenting significant challenges to the governance of international relations in a world that is already fraught with instability. Projections indicate that future climate change will likely reduce the availability of critical natural resources in various regions, potentially affecting the global landscape. The conflict related to climate change has largely been overlooked, even though it carries significant consequences. Through causal pathways involving natural disasters and declining or fluctuating resource availability, several analysts associate climate change with an increased probability of war. There is considerable consensus that climate change can play a role in exacerbating conflict, particularly under specific circumstances and through mechanisms. The existing literature indicates that climatic conditions can exacerbate conflict in agriculturally reliant areas, particularly when these conditions intersect with various socioeconomic and political factors, including low economic development and political marginalization. This study contends that the diminishing quality and availability of essential natural resources for sustaining livelihoods jeopardizes human security. This trend is expected to persist in the future due to climate change. Climate change is anticipated to diminish the capacity of governments to provide the vital opportunities and services necessary for individuals to sustain their livelihoods. This paper briefly assesses how natural disasters, resource scarcity, and global climate change may influence the probability of violent conflict in the future. This study subsequently explores strategies to improve the investigation of the link between climate change, conflict, and displacement while offering detailed policy recommendations to tackle this potential challenge.